New Zealand Central Bank Pauses Rate Cuts as Recession Risks Loom
On July 9, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) kept the Official Cash Rate (OCR) steady at 3.25%, in line with market expectations. This pause brings an end to six consecutive rate cuts since August 2023, during which the rate was slashed by a cumulative 225 basis points.
New Zealand's S&P/NZX 50 Falls 0.7% as RBNZ Pauses Rate Cuts
New Zealand’s benchmark S&P/NZX 50 index dropped 0.7% to 12,769 on Wednesday, pulling back from a seven-week high hit the previous day, after the Reserve Bank paused its rate-cutting cycle. The central bank kept the cash rate at 3.25% as expected, citing concerns that current inflation and global trade tensions could fuel price pressures. It had cut rates six times since August 2023, totaling 225 basis points, but signaled further cuts may come if inflation eases as projected in May.
RBA Pauses Rate Cuts; Mortgage Stress Shows Regional Divergence
Australia’s central bank held its cash rate at 3.85% on July 9, with the Monetary Policy Committee voting 6-3 to wait. While May inflation dipped to 2.1% (core 2.4%, a 3.5-year low), June’s CPI was "slightly stronger than expected," and rising global trade policy uncertainties—like U.S. tariff hikes—prompted the RBA to seek more data confirming inflation’s steady move toward the 2.5% target.
Trump Tariffs Jolt Australian Stocks; Gold Mining Sector Leads Declines
Australia’s stock market fell across the board on July 9, with the S&P/ASX 200 dropping 0.61% to 8,538.6 points. Markets reeled after Trump announced plans to impose 50% tariffs on imported copper (effective as early as late July) and 200% on pharmaceuticals, triggering a 13.1% daily surge in copper prices—their biggest jump since 1989.
Canada Accelerates Trade Diversification to Counter U.S. Tariff Shocks
Canada is pushing faster trade diversification to fend off U.S. tariff impacts: its U.S. export share dropped 10 percentage points to 68% between May 2024 and May 2025, with auto parts and steel hit hardest. Over the period, U.S.-bound exports fell C$7.7 billion (-15%), while gains to the UK, EU, and Asia-Pacific (C$5.7 billion, +42%) failed to offset the gap.
Canada's S&P/TSX Rises 0.35% as Real Estate Leads, Tariff Impact Muted
Canada’s S&P/TSX Composite Index ended a two-day slide, edging up 0.35% to 26,998.66 on July 9, with real estate stocks leading gains. Markets reacted divergently to Trump’s 50% copper tariff plan (effective as early as late July) and extended trade talks to August 1: the real estate index (.GSPTTRE) rose 0.5% on H&R REIT’s (HR_u.TO) 4.7% surge amid Blackstone acquisition talks.
Ireland Revises Q1 GDP Down, Germany’s Exports Slide on U.S. Tariff Shifts
Ireland’s CSO sharply revised Q1 GDP growth on July 8: annual expansion was cut to 7.4% from 9.7%, as surging U.S. pharmaceutical exports faded. The more indicative Modified Domestic Demand (MDD) was revised up to 2.0% from 0.8%, though 2024 full-year MDD growth was trimmed to 1.8% from 2.7%. GNI*, stripping multinationals’ distortions, showed 4.8% 2024 growth, highlighting GDP’s skew from cross-border capital flows.
